UNDERDOG NFL OPTIMIZER
PLAYER | UNDERDOG | BOOK ODDS | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Name | Line | % to Hit | STRK | L5 | L10 | H2H | SZN | |||||||
  Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN Over 36.5 Rec Yards vs JAX Sun 1:00PM ET 55.7 % To Hit 50% L10 Hit Rate 80% L5 Hit Rate -140 -125 -125 -137 (38.5) -120 (35.5) L5 80% L10 50% H2H 0% SZN 42% | WR | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN vs. JAX | Over 36.5 Rec Yards | Over 36.5 | 55.7% | -140 | -125 | -125 | -137 38.5 | -120 35.5 | 3 | ||||
  Chuba Hubbard CAR Under 54.5 Rush Yards vs PHI Sun 1:00PM ET 55.0 % To Hit 20% L10 Hit Rate 20% L5 Hit Rate -136 -120 -115 -125 -110 (50.5) L5 20% L10 20% H2H - SZN 25% | RB | Chuba Hubbard CAR @ PHI | Under 54.5 Rush Yards | Under 54.5 | 55.0% | -136 | -120 | -115 | -125 | -110 50.5 | |||||
  James Cook BUF Over 0.5 Anytime TD vs LAR Sun 4:25PM ET 55.0 % To Hit 80% L10 Hit Rate 80% L5 Hit Rate -122 -135 L5 80% L10 80% H2H 0% SZN 73% | RB | James Cook BUF @ LAR | Over 0.5 Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | 55.0% | -122 | -135 | 3 |
Optimize Your Underdog Slips
The Underdog optimizer looks at real-time odds at multiple sportsbooks, to find you +EV edge for your Underdog slips. Because most SportsBooks set lines independantly, when lines move due to weather, injuries, or other news, these moves happen in the market faster than Underdog adjusts their lines. Using the Optimizer you can see in real-time where the market is, and lock in value before Underdog bumps or takes down props.
Why do props and lines change throughout the day?
Underdog only has a portion of props on their board at any given time. Any props that are too juiced in a direction the will not put on the board, as they want to list props that are as close to 50/50 for outcome. This means that if breaking news suddenly changes the odds on something, Underdog might remove that prop or put it onto the board. The Underdog Optimizer is constantly refreshing the Underdog board and sportsbook data, so you have a real-time view into both.
What are Underdog bumps?
Bumps are when Underdog increases the prop line above or below SportsBooks lines. Because Prize Picks only has two outcomes to play (more or less), if something is too skewed in one direction they will adjust the line to bring that play closer to 50/50. For example, if Steph Curry has a line of 4.5 three points made, and SportsBooks are carrying this prop at -145 or higher, that means it is heavily favored that Steph will go over 4.5. So Underdog will 'bump' the line to 5, which is closer to a 50/50 outcome. Using the optimizer you can beat these bumps and lock in an edge if you look for plays that are in the -140s across multiple books.
How to predict when a line is about to be bumped?
Typically Underdog will bump a play when multiple books are in the -130s or -140s. This indicates that one side is now favored, so they will want to bring it back closer to 50/50. If you see odds in the -150s or higher, consider those at risk of immediate bumping, and you should look to lock those in fast!